Speaking on the third anniversary of the launch of the Somali National Television, Prime Minister Abdiweli Sheikh Ahmed praised the staff and executives at the Ministry of Information for shaping the SNTV into a mirror that best “reflects the reality on the ground in all corners of the country”. PM Abdiweli’s words ring true in the ears of some SNTV viewers.
The daily news reports pouring in from local bureaus in small towns such as Bal’ad, Adado and Abudwaq as well as some sizable cities like Beledweyne, Galka’yo and Bosaso lend his words some substance that all government controlled areas receive a fair share of state-run media coverage. While events in small towns such as Bal’ad and Adado continue to make headlines on SNTV, the only mention of Baidoa in the state-run media comes during official visits by high profile ministers who bring media crew with them. The government has shrugged off repeated requests by elders and regional authorities to establish a similar local bureau in Baidoa, the third biggest city in Somalia. The government put Baidoa off the radar and events occurring in and around its environs were deemed not newsworthy. As unbelievable as this may sound to some readers, it is nevertheless true. In fact, in comparison with Villa Somalia’s other deliberate political and economic sidelining of Southwestern regions, this obvious example of marginalization against Baidoa would be very insignificant.
The agricultural communities in the Inter-riverine regions of Somalia are peaceful by nature despite a mountain of cruel injustices against them which has been building up since the era of Somalia’s struggle for independence. Therefore, it has been typical of the successive government in Somalia to appease the vocal and violent constituents at the expense of the peaceful Southerners. Consequently, these societies were always dropped from the national priority list and found themselves marginalized.
Following the Addis Ababa Agreement on August 28, 2013 between the Federal Government of Somalia and Sheikh Ahmed Mohamed Islam (Madobe) of Kismayo regarding the status of Jubbaland and the subsequent mass protests that erupted in Baidoa on August 31, 2013 in opposition to that Agreement, I explained in an article not only why Southwestern people suddenly fumed with anger but also what would become of Baidoa if federal government fails to take the necessary steps to contain the unfolding crisis. Unfortunately, Villa Somalia underestimated the will of the people in those regions and took them for granted. From whatever angle one analyses the events that led to the current political crisis in Baidoa, one would not be able to avoid the fact that all blame falls squarely on federal government’s shoulders. In a nutshell, the political crisis in Baidoa was totally the FGS’s own creation.
Broken Promises and Neglect
On October 01, 2013, only two weeks into his new job as the president of the Federal Republic of Somalia, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud paid a visit to Baidoa where he was accorded a celebratory welcome by the tribal chiefs, the former governor of Bay region Mr. Abdifatah Gesey, mayor of the City of Baidoa Hassan Mo’alim Bikole and ordinary residents. It is worth noting that Kismayo was a no-go zone for federal government officials during this time.
Like any other major city in Somalia, Baidoa and Kismayo fell under the yoke of Al Shabab following the withdrawal of the Ethiopian forces at the end of 2009 as a result of the Djibouti peace process. In February, 2012 Ethiopian troops along with forces loyal to former Bay region Governor Abdifatah Gesey captured Baidoa from Alshabab eight months before Kismayo fell in the hands of Sheikh Ahmed Madobe of Raskamboni Brigades and Kenyan Defense Forces. Contrary to Sheikh Ahmed Madobe who quickly embarked on a self-serving campaign to form Jubbaland, politicians from the Inter-riverine areas stayed in line with the federal government’s preferred plan for formation of federal states.
Right after the end of roadmap process that culminated in the election of Hassan Sheikh Mohamud as the president of Somalia, 34 genuine tribal chiefs from Southwestern regions submitted a formal request to Villa Somalia in which they informed the President and the Speaker of their intention to host a broad-based reconciliation conference that would bring together all stakeholders in the Inter-riverine regions in order to lay the foundations for the Southwest State of Somalia. Initially, Villa Somalia approved of such a conference as evidenced by a document that the Ministry of Interior issued on December 15, 2012. As Kismayo crisis soared, President Hassan Sheikh had no choice but to ask the traditional elders of Digil & Mirifle to delay their plans for the creation of Southwest state consisting of Lower Shabelle, Lower Jubba, Middle Jubba, Bay, Gedo and Bakool. Furthermore, he requested them to accept the government’s National Stabilization Plan which required the appointment of interim governors for all regions of Somalia. On February 4, 2013, Baidoa welcomed the first Villa Somalia appointed governor Mr. Abdi Adam Hoosow as per NSP requirements. Unlike these elders, Sheikh Ahmed Madobe ignored President Mohamud’s call to comply with the NSP. All throughout Kismayo crisis, these elders stood behind the federal government and stayed away from making any incendiary statement that may exacerbate the situation contrary to Mogadishu-based elders namely Mohamed Hassan Haad and Ahmed Dirie Ali who waged a media war against Sheikh Ahmed Mohamed Islam of Jubba Administration. On August 28, 2012 much to Southwestern elders disappointment, Villa Somalia readily entered into agreement with Sheikh Ahmed Madobe without consulting them and other stakeholders. Regrettably, Addis Ababa agreement planted the first seeds of distrust between the Baidoa and the federal government as it threw the compliant elders under the bus while it exalted the violent noncompliant as the president of Jubba Administration.
A show of Indifference
As if the year-long conference in Baidoa did not afford the federal government the necessary time to make their position clear, the Interior Minister Abdulahi Godah Barre issued a letter on March 03, 2014 just minutes before the election of Madobe Nunow Mohamed as the president of Southwest State of Somalia. In this letter, Godah declared Southwest State unconstitutional and unworthy of recognition. Having ignored the conference for a year, the federal government finally woke up to the fact that elders were serious about declaring their own federal state.
Earlier on August 31, 2013, a day when mass protested gripped Baidoa against Addis Ababa agreement and elders were brewing with anger, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamed appeared on SNTV for an hour long interview in which he celebrated the Addis Ababa agreement without a single reference to Baidoa protests. This pattern of indifference continued. The federal government made no efforts to calm the raging Southwesters even when the elders declared their intentions not to honor Addis Ababa agreements and to proceed with their meetings aimed at forming Southwest State of Somalia consisting of six regions south of Mogadishu.
The federal government’s deliberate show of indifference was not a merely a failure to act but a well-thought-out policy based on tangible factors and it has had great merits and a high likelihood of success because the Baidoa conference did not enjoy the “necessary elements of success”: 1-Funding from the federal government or the international community. 2- Military support from neighboring countries such as Ethiopia or Kenya. 3- Heavy weight armed politicians who pose challenge to the federal government. The federal government believed that Baidoa’s anger was not more than an outburst of emotional reaction to Addis Ababa agreement that would fade away in a matter of days since it lacked the “necessary elements of success”; therefore, a show of indifference made a lot of sense. Much to the surprise of everyone, the elders armed with expert volunteers, extensive fundraising efforts, and unwavering determination succeeded in hosting the longest ever locally organized and funded conference.
A Scramble for a Mirage of Shortcuts.
As soon as Villa Somalia’s preoccupation with the campaign to remove former PM Abdi Farah Shirdon ended, the only immediate pressing issue was the conference taking place in Baidoa. Having defied all obstacles, the Baidoa conference was proceeding with an increasing momentum. Instead of facing the reality of the situation by talking to the genuine elders, the federal government embarked on a scramble to prevent the conference from producing results that would damage the Addis Ababa agreement.
The federal government launched multi-faceted plan that on one hand would help Sharif Hassan Sheikh Adan, MP and former Speaker of Parliament organize a parallel conference aimed at forming a federal state for Bay, Bakol and Lower Shabelle that excludes Jubba Administration and on the other hand would order AMISOM troops in Baidoa to close the ADC conference hall where elders’ meetings were underway.
The plan was set in motion. On Junary 27, 2014 Sharif Hassan Sheikh Adan officially opened the conference at Bakiin Hotel despite lack of popular support. Three days later, on January 30, 2013 AMISOM troops closed the ADC hall and denied elders and other participants entry to the area. Angry crowds chanting anti-federal government slogans set tires on fires and protested till AMISOM troops vacated the facility and let delegates continue with their regular meetings. The later phase of the plan failed miserably and it added to the distrust that elders have harbored against the federal government.
Mindful of the fact that elders were on the verge of electing leaders of Southwest State, the government dispatched a group of ministers from the Inter-riverine areas along with the Minister of Interior Abdulahi Godah Barre to persuade elders to delay their scheduled elections. The fatal error that the government committed was giving an equal political weight to genuine tribal elders and other delegates conferring at ADC hall and those loyal to Sharif Hassan Sheikh Adan at Bakin Hotel. This approach did not help as genuine elders realized the government was undermining their traditional legitimacy by crowning a substitute list of tribal chiefs. As a result, the elders refused to pay heed to mounting pressures from Mogadishu and held presidential elections as scheduled on March 03, 2014.
Earlier on Feb 4, 2014 in a another parallel effort to derail the future results of Baidoa conference, two government officials namely Governor Abdi Jinow Alasow of Middle Shabelle, and Gov Abdukadir Sidi of Lower Shabelle revealed of their plan to form two-region federal state known as Shabelle State. A subsequent two-day long meeting held in the outskirts of Afgoye culminated in the formation of Shabelle State on March 10, 2014.
While Sharif Hasssan Sheikh Adan’s immediate goal of setting up a three-region Southwest State conformed to the federal government vision in order not to break the Addis Ababa agreement provisions, his long term plan would have been very devastating for the federal governments; particularly, he would become a choke in the process to hold nationwide elections in September, 2016. According to sources close to Sharif Hassan Sheikh, his grand plan was to form an alliance with Puntland and Jubba Administration and use three-region Southwest State as a vehicle both for strangling the federal government and for catapulting himself to Villa Somalia as the president of Somalia in 2016. Baidoa, armed with peaceful protests and unwavering determination, aborted Sharif Hassan Sheikh Adan’s self-serving dream following a week of popular demonstrations. On March 24, 2014 people of all stripes vented their anger through mass protests after months of self-control and self-restraint regarding the Bakin gatherings which the federal government propped up. Surrounded by hundreds of peaceful protests, Sharif Hassan Sheikh Adan felt threated, so much so, that one of his bodyguards shot a 13- year old Hassan Adan Kerow. Mr. Sharif Hassan finally was airlifted from Baidoa with a tail between his legs; thus leaving his half-brother Mohamed Haji Abdinur (Mader) behind to crown himself as the president of three region federal state on March 27, 2014.
After having underestimated the seriousness of the situation for a year and having exhausted all available options to get around facing the reality of situation in Baidoa and to address legitimate grievances against Addis Ababa agreement, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Speaker Mohamed Sheikh Osman Jawari flew to Baidoa in an apparent effort to restore trust between the federal government and Southwestern tribal elders.
The federal government created this crisis by entering into an agreement with Jubba Administration instead of carrying out the National Stabilization Plan drawn up by the Ministry of Interior, and later on, amended and approved by the parliament. One might argue that Addis Ababa agreement was necessary as the federal government needed a quick political facelift to shake off scars caused by Kismayo crisis in order to achieve optimal results at the New Deal conference in Brussels on September 15, 2013; however, it apparently hurt the federal government more than it benefitted in the long run.
The President of Somalia finally realized that taking Baidoa for granted was a grave mistake. It was not wise to underestimate the will of the people and their determination to chart path for their future even with the absence of all elements of success: a reliable source of funding, involvement of the International Community and existence of military support from the neighboring countries as was the case with Kismayo crisis.
Speaking in Brussels this week, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has revealed of his intentions to go back to Baidoa in order to resume talks with the elders. This comes a few days after Prime Minister Abdiweli Sheikh Ahmed declared that he is headed for Baidoa to join the talks. While President Hassan Sheikh’s latest approach is very commendable, it is a classic case of shutting the barn door after the horse has bolted. Given the complexity of the situation, it is very difficult to predict the outcome of the negotiations to be held in Baidoa; however, the undeniable truth is that the cost of reconciling with Baidoa and bringing it in line with the federal government is much higher than it would have been had Villa Somalia not taken it for granted.
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Hassan Adam Hosow is a financial auditor based in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada and he can be reached via hosow@ualberta.ca or you may follow him on Twitter: @hassanhos