It was in 1970s when a senior commander of the Somali military forces was notified about irregular and suspicious movements by the Kenyan defence forces near the border of Somalia and Kenya. His reaction was rather luxury than worrying as he mockingly responded that the women brigade of the Somali military will be assigned in dealing with the Kenyan troops. With all due respect to our precious women, that answer was amusing as Somalis value their women highly and often assign them the easy tasks while men usually handle the tougher part of the job. Therefore, that was a clear message of Kenya being the least country that Somalia is ever worried about.
It is true that the situation between Kenya and Somalia is different now as the role arguably reversed due to the long instability that Somalia had to deal with for over Three decades while Kenya has had little problems in that regard. However, Somalia is still a major stake holder though in east and central Africa in terms of business, diplomacy and military.
Somalia has had a semi-healthy relationship with Kenya until last week when Kenya surprisingly revoked the Somali ambassador and sent him home while they called their ambassador from Mogadishu. Kenyan government reasoned their reckless decision to the meeting in London between the Somali government and some research companies in which Kenya uncertainly complained about Somalia auctioning oil blocks in a disputed maritime border. The reality is; that meeting was organized, facilitated and chaired by Somalia and its main purpose was to exhibit the oil rich blocks in the Somali Ocean.
As we know Somalia has endured a torrid few years of unrest and instability driven by foreign actors. In all those years, Kenya was actively engaged in fuelling the fire of Somalia. They intended to turn the focus of the Somalis from their rich resources so that the Kenyans will take advantage of them. Nevertheless, it is genuine to say that Somalis-however they are busy – always forget every other thing when they see a foreigner attempting to rob their resources. Somalis are always united against their foreign enemy when it comes to defend their land and integrity. They could be short of a lot of things in life but not bravery and patriotism when defending their sovereignty. It is no different when Kenya has tried to take a huge portion of the Somali maritime by taking advantage of the Somali weak government in early 2010s. Kenya found out that the Somali maritime close to the border of Kenya is rich in oil after carrying out an illegal smuggling survey. Therefore, they had tried in a lot of ways to convince the then Somali government led by the popular Sharif Sh Ahmed in giving up a huge triangle of the Somali maritime close to the border of the Kenya by wrongly accusing that the border was incorrectly measured during the colonial time. After a lot hassle and disputes; The Somali government signed a MoU with their Kenyan counterparts to take their disputes to the ICJ.
Meanwhile, Somalia presented the issues to the ICJ in 2016 and the ICJ ruled that Kenya should not go close to the disputed area until a final judgement is made by the court. However, Kenya is still seemingly reluctant to accept the initial order as they believe that the court will rule the disputed zone in the Somali favour.
Kenya showed their desperation for the Somali owned maritime when they exiled the Somali ambassador and called theirs home as well while releasing a comical statement calling neighbouring Somalia a close enemy. Thus, the reaction of the Somali people in general was strong and unforgiving. Every one was eagerly anticipating the reaction of the Somali government and all were campaigning for a ban on all Kenyan imported goods mainly the KHAD in which alone Kenyans make hundreds of thousands of dollars daily. However, after a careful considerations, the Somali government released a diplomatic statement which clearly indicated that Kenya did not do any research before their ruthless decision as Somalia confirmed that the oil blocks exhibited in the London meeting were all with in Somalia and non in the disputed area, so Kenya scored an own goal in that regard.
The Somali public did not take kindly to the allegations of the Kenyan government in calling them a close enemy and they were equally expecting a stronger response from their government but the Somali government opted to win the diplomatic war rather than the emotional war.
Meanwhile, what Kenyans don’t know is that Somalis will never ever give up an inch of their land until the last Somali lady left on earth. No one nation, individual or entity can take a possession of a Somali owned resources, land or asset. We might not have had any central strong government for over three decades but what we never lacked is the heart, desire and will to die for our nation and sovereignty. The more this rift continues the desperate Kenya will get and the more Somalia will be relentless to strike Kenya.
The diplomatic war has already been won by the Somali government after Kenya embarrassed it self with toothless statements which lacked cohesion, composure and maturity in politics. It is not a coincidence but rather a confirmation that Somalia always has had the upper hand against Kenya in almost every angle and this diplomatic lesson just shows how far Kenya has to go to reach the potential of Somalia.
Likewise Kenya will be committing a commercial suicide in taking on Somalia. Somalia has long been integral in the major business activities in Kenya and mainly in Nairobi. It is fair to say that Somali business men had a wake up call after the KASARANI incident in 2014 and they put a massive investment in Somalia after that incident while their business in Nairobi just remained stable but not upgraded in new waves. The number of Kenyan people employed by the Somali business men inside Kenya is staggering, while the amount of money that Kenyan government is making from the Somalis in Kenya in the name of taxes and bribery is astonishing. The major commodity that Kenya exports to Somalia is KHAT which generates millions of dollars of income for the Kenyan farmers per annum. Thus, Kenya is really abysmal in their risk assessment and responses. Similarly, Kenya is making millions of dollars in rental costs of the useless refuge comps of Dhadhab and Kakuma while Nairobi hosts the headquarters of almost all humanitarian organizations working is Somalia. Kenya already tasted the bitter fruits of relocating the Somali assets after the Somali government returned the national civil aviation center from Nairobi to Mogadishu and Kenya could no longer get any taxes from that area.
Finally, I saw a Kenyan reporter who ignorantly promoted military actions against Somalia, the only response I can give him is that Somalia does not currently have a recognised military unit but it has a nation of military people and commandos. Life and lavishness is the last thing that Somali people mind when it comes fighting for their liberation. Somalia has been in war against foreigners for centuries and it is the least thing to worry about as long as the integrity and sovereignty of our country is in jeopardy. Just ask the recent American so called rangers who blindly wanted to capture the Somali icon of Gen. Aidid but their mission turned into rescuing their hostages and collecting their dead bodies after facing a handful of untrained Somali farmers, merchants and women who called them selves (Revengers) in the streets of Mogadishu. The American arrogance led them to underrate the Somali bravery and patriotism and that yielded the infamous massacre of their so called special forces in the battle of Mogadishu.
In conclusion, Kenya will be making their deadliest ever mistake in aggressively taking on Somalia. And this time around, it will not be our women brigade to tackle Kenya but our whole nation. Somalia may lose a war as it happened before but it always wins the battle. Don’t be fooled like Ethiopians who declared a victory against Somali insurgents inside Somalia in 2006 but couldn’t be granted even a safe passage after they were pathetically forced out of Somalia in 2010. If 5 Somali men-regardless of their motives-can take the whole of Nairobi to a stand still, what will 200 Somali men -with the backing of their whole nation-do to you? You will be finished as a country!
Mohamed Yonis